evilmartini's posterous

3 Oct 2010

Everyday Behavioral Economics for the Geek

1 The ordering problem
- 1.1 Technology problems are people problems
- 1.2 What, is the Geek Ethos?
  - 1.2.1 "Primum non nocere" : First do no harm
  - 1.2.2 "Primum non stultus" : First, don't be stupid (or foolish)
2 Labor then and Now
- 2.1 Taylorism through the ages
3 We are trained to solve problems
- 3.1 Correction: We are trained to solve a certain class of problems
4 The Right Tool for the Job
- 4.1 We like our tools and our tool set
- 4.2 So what is the tool for working with and Editing Humans?
5 Rhetoric (Someone thought about this)
- 5.1 Parts of Rhetoric
- 5.2 And there are a tonne of logical fallacies
6 The Geek Argument HandBook
7 Understanding the Psychology of humans
- 7.1 People aren't rational
- 7.2 The pattern of human behavior that drives decisions
8 The Economics of human Behavior (The Math)
9 The Toolbox
10 Books

1 The ordering problem

1.1 Technology problems are people problems

We often start with the Technology first and the People problems second

1.2 What, is the Geek Ethos?

1.2.1 "Primum non nocere" : First do no harm

1.2.2 "Primum non stultus" : First, don't be stupid (or foolish)

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/stultus (Latin conjugation table for stultus)
The problems here are as follows:
1. People will often pay you for stupid shit
2. People often don't know that this shit is stupid
3. Randall's Maxim of the end user -

2 Labor then and Now

2.1 Taylorism through the ages

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_management
IMAGE: Fredrick Taylor ()
Fredrick Taylor, father of scientific management
The art of management has been defined, "as knowing exactly what you want men to do, and then seeing that they do it in the best and cheapest way.'" No concise definition can fully describe an art, but the relations between employers and men form without question the most important part of this art. In considering the subject, therefore, until this part of the problem has been fully discussed, the other phases of the art may be left in the background. Shop Management (1903 (http://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/6464/pg6464.html)

3 We are trained to solve problems

At the core, this is the heart of Engineering

3.1 Correction: We are trained to solve a certain class of problems

Experts at relational theory, refactoring, testing methodology
People don't come with debuggers (I often times wish they did…)

4 The Right Tool for the Job

4.1 We like our tools and our tool set

IMAGE: Series of drills while these all may be drills, only one of them is good for working on your tooth In this manner, the right tool for the right job is important
IMAGE: EMACS vs. VIM vs. IDE (obvious pandering here)

4.2 So what is the tool for working with and Editing Humans?

DETOUR - We're going off the rails for a bit

5 Rhetoric (Someone thought about this)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhetoric
the art of using language to communicate effectively. It involves three audience appeals: logos, pathos, and ethos, as well as the five canons of rhetoric: invention or discovery, arrangement, style, memory, and delivery

5.1 Parts of Rhetoric

5.1.1 Logos

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logos
it became a technical term in philosophy, beginning with Heraclitus (ca. 535–475 BC), who used the term for the principle of order and knowledge

5.1.2 Pathos

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pathos
Pathos (pronounced ˈpeɪθɒs or ˈpeɪθoʊs; Greek: πάθος, for "suffering" or "experience;" adjectival form: 'pathetic' from παθητικός) represents an appeal to the audience's emotions.

5.1.3 Ethos

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethos
Ethos (pronounced ˈiːθɒs or ˈiθoʊs) is an English word based on a Greek word and denotes the guiding beliefs or ideals that characterize a community, a nation or an ideology. Its use in rhetoric is closely based on the Greek terminology used by Aristotle.

5.2 And there are a tonne of logical fallacies

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies

6 The Geek Argument HandBook

6.1 The appeal to logic

IMAGE: Mr. Spock
the Proto Geek:
Logically, this can't possibly work

6.2 The appeal to Idols

The WWJD of argument tools: this is where we say "Yehuda" wouldn't write it that way

6.3 Coercion with collusion

6.4 The threat of failure

That's not going to work

6.5 The appeal to abbaonment

7 Understanding the Psychology of humans

7.1 People aren't rational

There's math later

7.2 The pattern of human behavior that drives decisions

8 The Economics of human Behavior (The Math)

8.0.1 Human Behavior is often times asymmetrical - often deeply so

8.1 Expected Utility

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_utility_hypothesis
Proposed by Daniel Bernouli in 1738
the idea here is that people will generally take the better of two options
The problem with expected utility is that people don't really behave this way. E.g. 5% chance of 3 weeks in europe or 10% chance of 1 week in Europe, people still take the chance of a 3 week vacation

8.1.1 St Petersburg Paradox

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_paradox -Published in 1738 in the Commentaries of the Imperial Academy of Science -http://www.cs.xu.edu/math/Sources/Montmort/stpetersburg.pdf

Online Simulation of St. Petersburg Lottery http://www.mathematik.com/Petersburg/Petersburg.html
Think of this as a game where even though you could win infinite amounts of money, you loose more than you win
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

8.2 Prospect Theory

First Proposed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. It attempts to model real world risk behavior and not optimal risk analysis behavior.
The paper is “Prospect Theory: An analysis of decision under risk” (http://www.pattonfunds.com/EDGE/EDGE_pdfs/ProspectTheory.pdf)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospect_theory
http://prospect-theory.behaviouralfinance.net/
purpose here was to explain why people behave in ways that are counter intuitive to expected utility
http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/prospect.htm

8.2.1 Gamblers fallacy plays a large part here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
There is another way to emphasize the fallacy. As already mentioned, the fallacy is built on the notion that previous failures indicate an increased probability of success on subsequent attempts. This is, in fact, the inverse of what actually happens,
http://www.princeton.edu/~kahneman/docs/Publications/prospect_theory.pdf
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:g-iNprHwVEEJ:myweb.fsu.edu/djcooper/teaching/ProspectTheory.ppt+prospect+theory+equations&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=safari

8.3 Stochastic Dominance

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic_dominance
in short:
Allows us to provide orderings of random variables (http://www.mcgill.ca/files/economics/stochasticdominance.pdf)
This allows us to actually say that one CDF is "larger" or "better" than another given some criteria
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulative_distribution_function

8.4 Mechanism design

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mechanism_design
Extension of game theory, 2007 Nobel in Economics given out to 3 men who worked on the foundations of Mechanism Theory

8.5 Randall's Maxim Applied

8.5.1 Anosognosia of Every Day life

How many guys does it take to rob a bank? -
- NY Times Article: The Anosognosics dilemma http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/21/the-anosognosics-dilemma-somethings-wrong-but-youll-never-know-what-it-is-part-2/n
  1. Part 5:

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3 Aug 2010

Inception in C - damn that's slick

Okay, I've seen some crazy cool ideas that merge pop culture and code, but this one takes the cake. This would be instant hire me credit if I were looking for a creative developer. That and the code is pretty well written (via 5 minute review) Check out the source (literally) at github. Thanks to @DeadProgram via @MilesForrest for the link. Incase you're too lazy to compile it, here's a gist of the output.

2 Aug 2010

... an Entangled Web We Weave.

via @arstechnica uncertainty is ... well, uncertain:
http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2010/08/quantum-memory-may-topple-heisenb...

29 Jul 2010

Article: Random Thoughts on Record-and-Playback

Random Thoughts on Record-and-Playback
http://bit.ly/bVeeMO

(via Instapaper)

-- sent from small mobile device

23 Jul 2010

Starcraft 2 - Ghosts of the Past Trailer (or: SC2 Awesome sauce)

This trailer alone explains why video games are kicking the crap out
of movies in this day and age. Some how, Blizzard has managed to keep
me interested in a franchise without a significant update for more
than 10 YEARS.

10 YEARS! The X-files (damn your eyes Chris Carter - damn your eyes!)
had me bored after three years and a lame movie that told me nothing.

I can still remember the visceral sense of betrayal when you saw
Kerigan get left behind..... I guess the story here is simple: tell
a good story and you'll make a great brand.

Hollywood, I'd be scared If I were you....

15 Jul 2010

The Awesome is Unbounded

http://awkwardstockphotos.com/

I think far too few people understand true implication of the long
tail. Long tail low cost infinite storage means that the most
awkward soul cringing elements of societal discomfort are now
eternally there for the googling.

The internet - proving that humanity is universally unbalanced since 1975.

Oh - and just in case you missed the point here's another one - ho ho
ho, merry christmas.

http://awkwardfamilyphotos.com/2010/07/10/saturday-night-special-5/

13 Jul 2010

Hairy Logic...

This is awesome and hysterical. If you don't get it, you're probably don't understand the corollary joke that goes something like "There are 10 types of people in this world: those that understand binary, and those that don't."

Thanks to @jm3 for the original link...

9 Jul 2010

Too Big to Compete

An article floated in over the Twitter Transom the other day. Go ahead and read the story ... I'll wait. Should you not be the sort that is all that excited about reading things out of band, I'll get you a the highlight:

The tech press and, apparently, Microsofties alike are trying to figure out what went wrong with the Kin "social phones," which Microsoft canned after two years of development but just seven weeks on the market

Continuing the trend, visiting the MS Kin website - You are greeted with a full screen flash page .... I guess they just wanted to make sure that the iPhone peeps felt a small pang of jealously as those 600k pre-ordered iPhone 4's won't be able to see what they're missing.

But I digress. A fundamental question that seems to elude is why do some large companies thrive under the constant need for change (think IBM) while others seem hell bent on hopping on the luge ride to obscurity and crashing stock prices? Microsoft mystifies me as an entity. Money: Check; Smart People: Check; Market Share: Check; Resources out the ass: Check. So how does a company that weighs in at #36 in the Fortune 50 screw up something so completely as to develop a "smart phone" that has a fifteen minute delay for all data pushed to the phone? Wait - did I say push? The device doesn't support push notifications? Excuse me, did you just tell me that you designed and released a mobile device designed for social media without push notifications?

The Pig Is Committed to Breakfast...

So the question comes down to this: "How come start-ups don't make such colossal fuck ups as this?". Answer: "They can't survive if they do". The reason David (the scrappy startup with no budget, no marketing, and sometimes no capital) can take on Goliath is because they can't afford to loose. For every company that makes a $1B US bad decision with an ill fated product, there are countless start-ups that never make it to market and never raise $100,000 US to get their product idea out the door. We only dub a company David after he kills Goliath, not before.

So what's the lesson here? It looks like no one is immune to the hubris of success. Even multi-billion dollar companies. In a free market, no one is too big to fail and there are innumerable David's lining up to take aim at your forehead with a stone.

3 Jul 2010

8-Bit Art....

This is far more fascinating than it has a right to be. Interesting
use of light and resolution. Definitely geek.

21 Jun 2010

Spacing out with Ions

Thanks to @timocratic for the original link.

MSNBC original Photo

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